Under German Guidance
Zainab Hachlaf
24.09.2015
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Germany this year has again convened in the shadow of the Ukrainian crisis - a conflict in Europe that is intractable and a problem for German leadership. Until now, Germany has had U.S. support in its opposition to sending weapons to Ukraine, but Eastern European states have already ventured ahead with their own policies. Lithuania, together with Poland, is arming Ukrainian troops; Britain has joined the US and sent military trainers, while other NATO members have provided an assortment of non-lethal military aid.
Nevertheless, Ukraine still looks to Germany to keep the sanctions regime in place, against individualistic politics of pro-Russia countries, such as Austria and Italy. However, German influence on the Ukrainian elite is poor due to the latters’ hope to make the US an active party in the war. It´s evident that there´s a lack of confidence in the EU’s collective ability to resolve the crisis. Doubts are based on the fact that Brussels gave "cautious support" to the Minsk accord and the fact that Russia was not expelled from the G8, and only suspended, leaving an open door for further talks with Moscow that seem to lead nowhere.
At the moment, Germany´s strategy is the use of EU competition law, particularly against the Russian Gazprom company, which has proven to be a powerful tool against the tricks of Putin and also acts as a reminder to those member states who wish to bend the rules.
FUTURE: RUSSIA vs EUROPE?
Russian aggression in Ukraine has not only led to sanctions by the EU and the U.S., but it has also cost Putin most of his friends in Europe, particularly Germany. German elites have long practiced an "understanding" policy, but never expected that Moscow would be hostile to the Eastern enlargement of the EU. Trilateral talks between EU, Ukraine, and Russia were suspended when the Minsk agreement failed to end the fighting between Kiev troops and pro-Russia separatists. Now, the problem is that even with political support and military aid from the U.S., European leaders (namely the German Chancellor) have been unable to resolve this conflict. It has convinced EU members to extend sanctions throughout 2015, but unilateral pursuit by the single members will make sanctions the least relevant policy. Berlin has few options to move forward now: join those calling for a proxy war with Russia by sending weapons to Ukraine; pressure Ukraine into accommodating Moscow and its separatists; or steadily walk away from the entire affair. Clearly, this is not an exhaustive list of alternatives or scenarios. In the meantime, U.S. involvement with NATO members in Eastern Europe is deepening by setting tanks on their borders and Russia responding "eye for an eye" by implementing its weapons. The obvious question that raises from this situation is one: will we see a revival of the Cold war?
The only certainty for now is that Germany needs to take a stronger and steadier step forward or the Americans, with the support of the single member states, will take the lead, turning their back to German guidance.
Nevertheless, Ukraine still looks to Germany to keep the sanctions regime in place, against individualistic politics of pro-Russia countries, such as Austria and Italy. However, German influence on the Ukrainian elite is poor due to the latters’ hope to make the US an active party in the war. It´s evident that there´s a lack of confidence in the EU’s collective ability to resolve the crisis. Doubts are based on the fact that Brussels gave "cautious support" to the Minsk accord and the fact that Russia was not expelled from the G8, and only suspended, leaving an open door for further talks with Moscow that seem to lead nowhere.
At the moment, Germany´s strategy is the use of EU competition law, particularly against the Russian Gazprom company, which has proven to be a powerful tool against the tricks of Putin and also acts as a reminder to those member states who wish to bend the rules.
FUTURE: RUSSIA vs EUROPE?
Russian aggression in Ukraine has not only led to sanctions by the EU and the U.S., but it has also cost Putin most of his friends in Europe, particularly Germany. German elites have long practiced an "understanding" policy, but never expected that Moscow would be hostile to the Eastern enlargement of the EU. Trilateral talks between EU, Ukraine, and Russia were suspended when the Minsk agreement failed to end the fighting between Kiev troops and pro-Russia separatists. Now, the problem is that even with political support and military aid from the U.S., European leaders (namely the German Chancellor) have been unable to resolve this conflict. It has convinced EU members to extend sanctions throughout 2015, but unilateral pursuit by the single members will make sanctions the least relevant policy. Berlin has few options to move forward now: join those calling for a proxy war with Russia by sending weapons to Ukraine; pressure Ukraine into accommodating Moscow and its separatists; or steadily walk away from the entire affair. Clearly, this is not an exhaustive list of alternatives or scenarios. In the meantime, U.S. involvement with NATO members in Eastern Europe is deepening by setting tanks on their borders and Russia responding "eye for an eye" by implementing its weapons. The obvious question that raises from this situation is one: will we see a revival of the Cold war?
The only certainty for now is that Germany needs to take a stronger and steadier step forward or the Americans, with the support of the single member states, will take the lead, turning their back to German guidance.
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